A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
